For the $SPX $SPY I am expecting a 1338-1365 grind early this week. Base out, rip into option expiration possibly. Lose 1338 as a close? Then I would be looking for a 1307 test possibly, but we will modify the plan then. 1370 is MAJOR overhead resistance, to break and hold over it, we must base/digest some. Would love to see a 2-3 day bloodbath, but not likely.
Major support and resistance in my opinion never changes, only price does when it gets there. These are the important numbers going forward, 1274, 1307, 1338, 1370, 1404. $SPX 1338 is in my opinion the most important number in the entire SP500. Right now it is the first line in sand under us.
The 30 minute $SPX chart is my basic guide to the short term coming and goings of the market, and if we start coming in, these will be the “Shallow” dips I am looking to buy. The 20EMA is @ 1343. The 50ema is at 1344. Also 1333 and 1327 are key fibs of the recent ripper. The 200ema sits at 1328. Then ultimately major support lies at 1307.
The Bond stock ratio has crossed and I have pleaded the potential of this cross aggressively and have traded to the long side as such. This is huge. It can always cross back, and then we get off the gas for a bit. But as long as the cross is in, shorting the market is not the smart move at all. The bid under this thing is huge, and money hasn’t exactly been pouring out of the bond market. “Yet”.
The hated rally’s are always my favorite to trade, because they move in pretty much one direction, and that direction is UP. To everyones dismay. Like I said, my favorite environment to trade.
The $DX_F tried to put a bounce together last Fryday, but again this is no bottom on the $USD. I am still in full bear mode on it, and see it still going much lower, or at the least any strength wont put a damper on the SPX. 78.50 is support and basically if 78.50 is lost. Look out below, no support until 77.52. Over 79.73 would more than likely put a pinch on the current bull run. We shall see. Both the daily look terrible for any sustained move higher.
So this is a brief read for the week, as not much has changed for months. The $NYMO is only at -17.82, so again I plead. Stop saying we are overbought. We are going higher, hopefully we see a 3-5% dip along the way, but just because we don’t is no reason not to be involved in the equity markets right now. Stop looking for reasons to be bearish. Calling tops is a fool game, let the market tell ya when we have topped, and I see absolutely no reason to believe that yet.
Baa©,
Goat
Including my COMPQ long term chart, complete with every note since 2007.
