Sizable gap-down this am with the ES down -7 and the $SPY has lost the 50ema here and the lower trend-line on the 30min chart. 135.86 is the 10ema on the daily, and the short term line in the sand. That number also represents the 38% fib of the recent action. Upside targets for today are 136.50, 136.77. Kirby action starts at 136.60 and opens up big at 137.15. For more downside look for 135.86, and if that cracks look for 135.51 then the 200ema on the 30min at 135.11. Major support is under us at 134.62.
The objective of $SPX 1370 has been met for the most part, with it tagging 1367.76. Would prefer that we don’t break it this week. Would like to see some churning action to keep the trend intact. Yesterday buyers showed up at the 50ema on the $SPY 30min at 136.05. First overhead resistance is 136.71. Then over 137.05 is another powerful Kirby. If we lose the 50ema then I would be looking for about 135.45 to test the bottom rail of the rising spatula, and 135.26 is the 10ema on the daily. The next major support comes in at 134.62.
Patience is a virtue in this environment. Numb your emotions, there is no fear or greed. Just a sucker who’s willing to pay you a premium for being too early or late.
Fun-dee-mental! Fun-dee-mental! Fundee-mental! Fundee-mental! Fun-dee-eeeee-mental!
Really like the possibility of a longer term hold in $CXW here. All time high over the past decade was 33.40 back in ’07. With enough time and desperation on the part of state governments to take shitty cutthroat deals in an effort to whittle away at their growing deficits, there’s no reason it won’t get back there and beyond.
Looking at the weekly, the Kirby areas are 23.70, 26.00, 28.30. I see support at 23.90 with 22.75 under that. Entry anywhere over that 23.90, or on weakness. First target is Kirby #2 at 26, then Kirby #3 at 28.30, and ultimately the high of 33.40. Then I could see even holding a piece for a potentially huge move. The recent proposal, coupled with the fact that it just had a golden cross, wrapped in a bloody day that was digested and resulted in belching a new high on Fryday; it smells like a raw deal, but it looks right to the Goat Eye!
Contrary to popular belief, I am not just a daytrader. But let’s not get it twisted. I daytrade. Which is to say, I trade… during the day. Frequently. On Thursday, in $AAPL alone, I took 15 trades.
But as much as I enjoy it, my heart and passion are in swing trading and reading the market. So I monitor my swings while I take advantage of the intraday movement in the great stocks I love to trade anyway. And though I tend to at least try to avoid degenerate dumpster diving; sometimes, that other man’s trash really does turn out to be a treasure. Or at least shiny trash.
I intentionally look to daytrade names that are setup to swing; just in case I really nail an entry. That way I can take a piece home for the bigger technical move. My general rule of thumb is to daytrade with 2-4x the size I would otherwise comfortably swing. If I decide to take a piece home, it is usually with cushion from profitable daytrade weight. This reduces risk in the event of a total breakdown in the name or the overall market.
If a swing is long and strong from its entry, and you’re the flavor that likes to ride awhile, roll with it. I’ve got #DTBC members still hanging on to entries in $NFLX from the mid 60′s, $MCD in the 70′s, $SPY in the 124′s, $BAC from 5, etc. For me, personally, I’m primarily focused on 2-5 day holds. That way I can rotate my capitol in and out of stocks as they are setup to move. When that stock rips +3-5% and I catch it, I don’t want to wait for it to go sideways and digest its gains for a week before it may or may not move one way or the other. So I take profits and I get into something else that’s setup to move +3-5%. And so goes the dance.
Here’s what I’m currently holding in the short term trading accounts, complete with trade plans: $ALGT $CELG $CENX $COP $FSLR $IBM $SPY
Congratulations! You’ve made it this far! Have some Goat cheese. $SHLD $SOHU $SPG
1338 is in my opinion the most important number in the $SPX. First line in sand under us. If we start coming in, these will be the “Shallow” dips I am looking to buy. On the 30 minute chart the 200ema is at 1334. Pay attention to 1334,1328 and 1321 as they are key fibs of the recent ripper. Then ultimately major support lies at 1307.
For the $SPY, On the 30 minute chart the 200ema is at 133.59. Pay attn. to 133.63,132.95 and 132.26 as they are key fibs of the recent ripper. Then ultimately major support lies at 131.42. Overhead 134.62 is MAJOR resistance, then the 20/50ema’s up near 135. If we can recover those, then lets talk about upside then.
$SPY 131.76 and $SPX 1315 represents a 3% Correction.
As I have been saying in my recent $SPY /$SPX reads, If $DX_F breaks over 79.73 pressure will come. Now we over next res of 80.06. Next resistance lies at 80.4.
I am including a few other charts, read the notes on those.
Hard to find a better setup than $CELG in the market right now. Over resistance of 74.75 and this explodes. Now there are a lot of eyes on this #. I would rather front run it. A Kirby opens up at 74.20, and if buyers push it through, Lets buy that. Sell 1/2 into the 74.75 breakout, and see what happens. The target is all time highs of 77.39. Ever since this broke the 63.50 Kirby©, its been a one way street. For a very short term trade, stop out if Tuesdays low of 72.77 is lost. To try to catch this for sure, then loosen the stop to 71.05.
The Rising Spatula© Broke down via gap-down on the $SPY last Fryday, and we just grinded against it all day on Monday. Over 135.60 and this market rips. I would rather not break it today. Lets build up some energy as per the “SP500 Read for the week”. The futures are soft as I write this, with the ES down about 5 points. The 20ema is at 135.05 and is being tested in pre market. The 50ema is at 134.81 and major support is at 134.62. The gap opens at 134.74 and fills at 134.36.
This is option ex week as well. Incredibly strong trend that is not looking toppy to me at all. Although I am expecting a “Shake ~N~ Bake” event very soon, to spook the weak hands and suck in some PerMayans©. If we break 135.60, I will be looking for a power move till 136.71.
The $DX-F is bouncing hard, now over resistance at 79.19. The next stop is at 79.73, and if we see that, then we do not break 135.60 “yet”. Patience Daniel Son. The $SPX numbers to pay attn to going forward are 1370,1338,1307 and 1274.
HT @StockSage1 . This is awesome setup on $ATW . Four year highs are 48.84 and should be a thing of the past soon. All time highs are at 63.46. Might need to digest a tad first though. Thats a pretty big candle on Fryday. I will be looking for the entry between 45.70-47. We might have to chase this over the highs of 47.84 as long as volume is there, I will try if it wont dip. Stops depending on entry, but max pain would be losing Frydays low of 45.03. Lower float and 7% short they are all under water. I day this goes big this week.
For the $SPX $SPY I am expecting a 1338-1365 grind early this week. Base out, rip into option expiration possibly. Lose 1338 as a close? Then I would be looking for a 1307 test possibly, but we will modify the plan then. 1370 is MAJOR overhead resistance, to break and hold over it, we must base/digest some. Would love to see a 2-3 day bloodbath, but not likely.
Major support and resistance in my opinion never changes, only price does when it gets there. These are the important numbers going forward, 1274, 1307, 1338, 1370, 1404. $SPX 1338 is in my opinion the most important number in the entire SP500. Right now it is the first line in sand under us.
The 30 minute $SPX chart is my basic guide to the short term coming and goings of the market, and if we start coming in, these will be the “Shallow” dips I am looking to buy. The 20EMA is @ 1343. The 50ema is at 1344. Also 1333 and 1327 are key fibs of the recent ripper. The 200ema sits at 1328. Then ultimately major support lies at 1307.
The Bond stock ratio has crossed and I have pleaded the potential of this cross aggressively and have traded to the long side as such. This is huge. It can always cross back, and then we get off the gas for a bit. But as long as the cross is in, shorting the market is not the smart move at all. The bid under this thing is huge, and money hasn’t exactly been pouring out of the bond market. “Yet”.
The hated rally’s are always my favorite to trade, because they move in pretty much one direction, and that direction is UP. To everyones dismay. Like I said, my favorite environment to trade.
The $DX_F tried to put a bounce together last Fryday, but again this is no bottom on the $USD. I am still in full bear mode on it, and see it still going much lower, or at the least any strength wont put a damper on the SPX. 78.50 is support and basically if 78.50 is lost. Look out below, no support until 77.52. Over 79.73 would more than likely put a pinch on the current bull run. We shall see. Both the daily look terrible for any sustained move higher.
So this is a brief read for the week, as not much has changed for months. The $NYMO is only at -17.82, so again I plead. Stop saying we are overbought. We are going higher, hopefully we see a 3-5% dip along the way, but just because we don’t is no reason not to be involved in the equity markets right now. Stop looking for reasons to be bearish. Calling tops is a fool game, let the market tell ya when we have topped, and I see absolutely no reason to believe that yet.
Sizable $SPY gapdown, as I warned #DTBC yesterday of. I went into Thursday with the foot still firmly planted on the gas at 65% long. I left with only 10% long in the trading accts. I am not here today, as I need to take care of something in the real world.
The Rising Spatula© has broken. Major support of 134.62 has been lost with the $SPY trading as low as 133.95. We are into a sizable gap under us which opened at 133.77 and fills at 132.68. The 200ema on the 30minute chart is down there at 132.72. Then there is another gap which opens at 132.13 and fills at 131.32. The next major support after losing 134.62 is at 131.41. That support # represents roughly a 3% correction. It wont be in a straight line, there should be bounces.
Overhead 134.62 is the nut, with the 50ema at 134.75. Doubt we retake those today, but remember this market has been an absolute beast. I suspect worst case scenario today as the gap-fill area of 132.68. If the relentless bid in this market hides for the day.
The dollar $DX_F recently found major support of 78.50 and based on it, already it is over the next major resistance area of 79.19. It is due to “dead cat” bounce here. Next stop is 79.73 then 80.06. Do not try to fight this!!! We caught a 300 point $SPX rally, now its time to take the foot off the gas and let the institutions do the lifting for us. This is not a top, I expect this dip to be bought aggressively. Patience!! I have been praying for a 3-5% dip. With a little luck, this is the start. $SPX 1338, 1307, 1274 are the focus numbers.