Riding the Trumpalumpagus

As real as it gets, baby!


Say what you will about the guy: “He’s a birther!” “He’s an asshole!” “It’s a toupee!” I don’t care if he licks batteries and takes body shots off southeast asian she-male lingerie models with @stevenplace. To borrow a Brock Lesnar’ism, the man knows how to take chicken shit and turn it into chicken salad. These goat eyes see some real potential for the better in a businessman who can turn around a company with 1000 times more debt than it has assets, because that’s really what the United States, Inc. has become. Uncle Sam is more and more resembling an isolated sociopath so grotesquely debt-bloated that only someone with real savvy and the connections to coordinate the effort will be able to knock out the wall of his foreclosed-on luxury high-rise apartment and hoist his carcass back down to earth before he chokes on the rolls of inner cheek fat sagging down the back of his throat. Nothing devalues a property more than remains you either have to dismember or wait for the ants to take care of.

Da’Trump should run. There. I said it. I’ll retire my “none of the above” stencil if he does. Isn’t it about time we have an unabashed F-bomber in the White House? I mean, sure, we had Cheney. And don’t get me wrong. I appreciate a robot heart hip-pack and your shotgun mistaking a friend’s face for a quail as much as the next guy. Hell, I even thought it was baller when he told some other old rich white guy, “Fuck yourself!” on the Senate floor. But Da’Trump is keeping it real for the people, even for Republican women’s groups, and being applauded for it.

I don’t know about you, but I’d much rather have a tried and true business mogul with an attitude at the helm over another cookie cutter smiley glad hand with hidden agendas any day of the week. Well, except maybe for Saturday. Shomer shabbos!

All aboard the Adtran!

We nailed this back in early January based on the chart which was an “Upside Breakout” coming out of a 16 year pattern. Love this company/chart. I have been stalking the 36-37 area for some time now, and it just wont come down. Looking to get in this one today. The RSI has broken 50 to the upside, had a bull MACD cross recently, and the stochastics are nice. 39.25 is a good support area, and so is 40.75. I like a stop at losing 40. First target is the 50MA at 42.76. Really looking for 45+ here.

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Bernankey Panky and the Fabulous Fed

I’m not what you would call “political” here on the animal farm. I got no interest in the trepanning that goes on at the 24/7 tailgate outside the Fletcher Memorial Home. But in an effort to expand the scope of this here blog – and inspired by thoughts of how bad ass it would be if Big Ben took a cue from Lemmy Kilmister and lost the chin hair and maybe gained a face wart or two – I’m going to don my Gacy costume and crash fashionably in an ice cream truck blaring Bob Goulet’s greatest hits with the words “It’s Fuh-Fuh-Fundy-Mental Time!” painted in sheep’s blood on the side.

As traders, we regularly find ourselves at the mercy and whim of the Fed. Yesterday’s “unprecedented” waste of time added a fresh news event that didn’t suggest the needle might be coming out of the arm anytime soon, prompting a run for over a point on the SPY, no surprise there.

But if you paid close attention to the Q&A, Ben makes it a point to fluff their willingness to experiment with transparency and accountability. Here’s the clip of what I’m referring to, in case you missed it:

Afterwards, my site admin made it a point to chime in on it in his typical fashion. If you don’t know my site, the guy is a straight information junkie who will pull the most obscure facts about anything and everything straight out of his ass. And the second you think its some foil hat nutter butter he’ll stab you in the brain with official source links to back it up. I discussed it in detail with him afterwards and he highlighted for me an excellent point. If Ben and the fabulous Fed are indeed serious, they need only endorse the removal of a single word from the law. No shit. One word stands between the past 97 years of cloak-and-dagger and a new dawn of Bernankey Panky sunshine blotter banking.

Check it out:

Audits of the Federal Reserve Board and Federal reserve banks may not include -

(1) transactions for or with a foreign central bank, government
of a foreign country, or nonprivate international financing
organization;

(2) deliberations, decisions, or actions on monetary policy
matters, including discount window operations, reserves of member
banks, securities credit, interest on deposits, and open market
operations;

(3) transactions made under the direction of the Federal Open
Market Committee; or

(4) a part of a discussion or communication among or between
members of the Board of Governors and officers and employees of
the Federal Reserve System related to clauses (1)-(3) of this
subsection.

- from 31USC§714

Will this ever happen? Let’s just say we’ve got a better chance of Martha Stewart taking inspiration from how she’s portrayed on South Park and applying it to a Showtime After Hours performance art showcase.

I got tea and crumpets on my Goldman slacks

Started a swing here at 150.60, stops at losing 149. My long term support and resistance area is 149.24, so if 149 is lost I am gone. Goldman is always best bought on weakness, But one must scale in kinda. If we see a rip on it today, I will sell a piece and try to work a core here. Looking at the weekly chart we are seeing a “Tea~N~Crumpets” pattern. First target here is 155, but being Goldman we could see much higher. The risk reward here to me is acceptable.

As an oilman, I hope that you’ll forgive just good old fashioned plain-speaking.

There will not be blood. After watching the recent incredible run here, I am still very impressed. 85 dollars in February to 113 now. I am still very bullish on the WTIC. The RSI supports the breakout as well. Next major resistance is at 122.00. This would have to reverse hard through major support of 109.50 as a close to make me think any reversal might happen. So far the equity market has ignored this run, and more than likely will continue to do so for the time being.

Smoke on the water – Is Transocean on fire?

69 is great long term support with the 200MA catching up to it at 68.24, The ideal entry here would be as close to 69 as possible, with stops under that 200 MA for a swing. For a trade same deal, just run a stop just under that 69 area. Nasty nasty chart, but this plan has a nice R/R to it. On watch over here at #DTBC

Fuh-fuh-fundy-mentalism

Some of you respect my technical analysis prowess. Most of you do not. As I continue to carve notches of deviant SPX conquests on my 4-post bed, a few of you are coming around. But what almost no one realizes is that my mad TA skillz are the direct by-product of my ultra-mega-macro-fundamental-analysis (UMMFA); and yes, it’s quite a bit bigger than yours.

You see, the cornerstone of UMMFA is a little thing I like to call reality. You might’ve heard of it. It may have even slapped you across the face with a weighted fleshy girth a time or two in the past. But in my experience, most traders flee like a streetwalker in 6-inch pumps running from a Japanese fishing village hanging-10 in March at the first glimpse of it. This reality of which I speak is not the parade of electron gun dogs and ponies so many of you “tune in” to on a daily basis that lulls your brain into an alpha-state of endorphin-addled poprock bread pudding. That circus of handsome liars and sycophants exists for the sole purpose of selling you shit; be it a worldview or a Benz (weltanschauungskrieg, anyone?). If you’re one of those “reading-types” go look up a cat by the name of Herbert Krugman and hold onto your butt.

The truth is, our entire system is completely and utterly rotten to the core and it pwns 99.99% of us every single day of our lives. Of course, you don’t want to hear that. Who does? Surely, this is just a dramatically exaggerated and unfair characterization of a system with its share of problems, like any other, but fundamentally good, right? Wrong. Self-interest is the name of the game. And solely out of self-interest, humans will invariably lie, cheat, steal, and kill. I could count the ways for you, but would it do any good? Probably not. Because odds are your programming will kick in and you’ll just go crawling back to Feel Good, Inc. and the habitual belief that fundamentals are the way, the truth, and the light. All the while, every facet of traditional fundamental analysis is on the take.

“But, but, but Ron?” you’re thinking. “Aren’t you just a hypocrite then? You think it’s all rotten, but you exploit it for your own ends? Why you hating?” I’m not hating on the game. Far from it. Slap my ass and call me Dick Vitale. Uh oh! Uh Oh! UH OH! BINGO BOINGO! I love this game. You bet your sweet cheeks I do. Where else can I sit in my underwear all day brushing my shiny man-goat fur and grow my money by 30% year over year? I’m merely highlighting the fallacy of adhering to a “fundamentals” perspective that doesn’t regard the most fundamental aspects of reality and having the chutzpah to call yourself a fundamental analyst.

So, take a piece of advice from your friendly neighborhood spidergoat… Throw away your television. Forget what you think you know about fundamentals. And get on the technical analysis bandwagon of degenerate dumpster diving manimals that follow the one and only incorruptible fundamental: PRICE ACTION.

Good day, sir!


SP500 Read for the Week

Last week was a fun ride to say the least. Earnings season kicked off to a good start. The market has reacted very positively to the reports for the most part. Two weeks ago when we were still in the 1320′s I thought the market had a shot at dipping to 1307, and possibly 1294 to put in the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulder’s pattern. Low and behold we found 1294 and have ripped higher some 44 points in a holiday shorted week. It is also important to note the move was made on good volume.

Now I am also seeing a lot of talk about the inverted head and shoulders pattern being more of a bottoming pattern. Well, yes it is. Think back to the summer of 2010 and the right shoulder at 1039. Just because it is supposed to be a bottoming pattern does not reduce it’s significance to me. It is by far my favorite pattern to trade. I am always looking for it, whether it is on a daily chart, or on a 3 minute chart intraday. Time will tell how this one plays out.

The infamous “carry-over” market is still here. Must swing it to really catch the great gains. All the moves are made via overnight gap-up. This past week I liked how the market digested it’s gap-ups throughout the day. Very tight range, not great for day-trading, but the ATR indicator tells us that. It is flat lining around the critical level of 14. Must keep an eye on it. If it spikes, would be a little more cautious here. But 14 and under, the melt can and will continue.

1338 is no joke, which I have been pointing out for months. As the monthly chart clearly show’s we have only been above it, and able to pull away from it twice successfully in the past. Now this recent run is the most “set-up” we have been yet to get through it. The run that ended in February came after a 160+ point run. The run which ended in April, came after a 90 point run. We simply ran out of gas both times. Now we are back and after a fast rip of 43 points and a very bullish pattern. Personally I would love to see some digestion / dippage here into the fed jazz on Wednesday, to build more energy. Be that as it may, I am still a raging bull here.

Looking at the daily, the RSI at 60 which is great strength, the MACD just crossed bullish, and the stochastic’s are dam near perfect. Very bullish to say the least.

On the weekly and the monthly charts look at the “vacuum” which awaits us upon breaking out. My 2011 target has been the high of 1440 from back in 2008. I have a feeling that the next leg higher in the market can come via a viscous rally. 1440 is only 100 points away. For this week I would like to see the major resistance broken, and pull away somewhat from it to say 1360. Still a ton of earnings to get through. Make sure you are double checking any swings you have on for there earnings dates, and related company’s. Nothing worse than being long a stock into earnings and not knowing it. Too much risk without a plan to be honest.

Last but certainly not least is the NYMO at only +20. We are not overbought at all really.

Enjoy the trading this week, and as always trade what you see, not what you think. This is how I approach the markets each and every week. The market moves very fast and can change on a dime, it’s up to you to know when to change your plan. Good luck.
Baa!

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