Monthly Archives: March 2011

$SPY Read for the Day, March 31, 2011$NYMO $SPX $JJC

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Just a quick read here for the day, Slight weakness in pre market with the ES about 2.25. The SPY is sitting on 132.50 just about the lows of yesterday. The plan has worked like a charm. The targets from SPX 1250 were 1307 then the 1320′s. Once we were over 1330 yesterday I unloaded most of what I was holding. Very heavy cash here and ready for anything.

Long term resistance of 1338 is just overhead 6 points above yesterdays highs, Still think we will tag it by the end of the week. I would be looking for some digestion or consolidation to get through it next week, but this market is just an absolute freight train. We could just as easily blast through it. A dip to 1307 is the very near future would be a buy in my book.

Copper is concerning me, has been showing signs of weakness, but until it really breaks down for now it is just a caution sign. the JJC chart shows it held the major moving average, but its fighting for dear life.

The market is far from overbought here, the NYMO closed at 42.25 and could easily run to 100+, I am not expecting that, just pointing it out.

Levels for today on the SPY for downside are Yesterdays lows of 132.36 and then the gap fill at 131.86. Major support sits at 131.42. Would be a buyer there today definitely. Upside we have yesterdays highs of 133.16 then the gap fill at 133.95, and onto new 52 week highs of 134.10. The next major resistance on the SPY is 134.69.

I am looking for a sideways kinda day here, lets see what the market has in store for us today, good luck.
Baa.

$SPY Read for the Day, March 30, 2011

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“We continue your regularly scheduled BULL MARKET..we apologize for the interruption”

My oh my, We are walking into a HUGE gap-up today. The ES hit as high as 1324.50 for a cool +8. <–Ka-Pow!

Coming into the week I wanted to see some digestion for the run to 1338 by Fryday, so far so good. Monday and Tuesday we saw the needed digestion, and  a lot of constructive activity under the surface. Now when we see 1338 I will re asses the situation. At this point I just cant see us blowing through it like it was not there. It is the single biggest area of resistance on the SPX. But that is still about 10 points or so overhead. One day at a time. When we do break it, strap in, we will rocket higher. Depending on how we get there.

The NYMO is a very important tool in my box, and it is at +25.34 coming into today, we are no where near overbought. The way we have recovered 70+ points off the 1249 lows has been very constructive, we have paused when we needed to and lifted when we needed to.

This recent run has been a blast to trade, after finally correcting 7%. My own trading has been a fun ride, just ripping points out of all kinds of stocks. But do not forget where we are. We are just under that brick wall of 1338. This is a “toppy” area. I love trading after dips/corrections. This one is not done by any means. Just keep heavy cash. I haven’t deployed more than 50% of my account in several month’s. Call it what ya want. I call it disciplined trading. You don’t have to try and be a rock-star every day or month for that matter.

Copper is a MAJOR market tell. I watch it like a hawk. We have lost the all important 436 level on a closing basis. Copper usually leads the overall market by 2-3 days. It is recovering though, It has tagged  438 in the overnight session. I think copper just took a break. It is ready to run again.

The SPY has hit as high as 132.86 this morning, a full one point higher than the close yesterday, and by breaking 132.75 we are pushing into the “Vacuum”, take a look at my SPY Weekly chart. Since the cup was put in back in the summer, the measured move was 135-140. We saw a high of 134.11. Plenty of room to go people.

To dial it in for the day I use my SPY 60 minute chart. First support under us is the gap fill at 131.86 and then my MAJOR support of 131.42. That should hold today. Worst case scenario is the 50% fib at 130.53. Cant see that even getting close today. Upside target is the gap which starts at 133.04 and fills at 133.95. Then we have 52 week highs at 134.11.

Important to note that no matter where we are or what the market is doing, you have to be careful to not chase on gap up’s like this and ALWAYS sell some into it. You don’t see a hungry rat in a cheese shop do you?
Baa!

Swings L: $ANF 56.35 $ATPG 9.90/11.17 $FSLR 155.98 $JBHT 43.58 $OXY 101.14 $SSO 51.90 $X 55.15 $ISRG May 350 calls 10.60  $GS 160 weekly calls @ 1.17

 

 

$SPY Read for the Day, March 29, 2011 $SPX $HG_F $NYMO

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Coming into the week I was looking for a pause, and some digestion, which is what we saw yesterday. If we are going to attack the MAJOR resistance at SPX 1338, we need to do it right. We must build up the energy to get through it. We saw some late day selling come into the market yesterday which didn’t surprise me. Where they front running the Obama speech? Maybe. The 50MA on the SPY is at 130.29 and would expect it to get tested today. Losing it wouldnt have me panic, it’s not that big of a deal. To many traders focus on the MA’s. There are not major sup/res to me. Just inflection point’s.

We have support under us at 1307 which is also back-testing the downtrend-line, and also is the 61% fib. So that’s my first downside target. As I said yesterday on the read for the week, I can see 1274 dip and would still be bullish. I welcome the weakness here.

Copper is a MAJOR market tell. I watch it like a hawk. We have lost the all important 436 level. Copper usually leads the overall market by 2-3 days. Concerned here with it trading as low as 429. Kinda hits at further weakness in the equity market’s.

Also watch the SPX/ATR chart, as the ATR is rolling over back 14.
As far as levals to be watching today on the SPY. 130.53 is the 61% fibber and the 50MA is at 130.29. If we sell harder then I am targeting the 50% fib @ 129.42, There is also the 38% fib at 128.32 which was also a recent low. I dont think we get there today. Upside first target would be 131.42 which is major support and resistance area. Then yesterdays highs of 131.92. I am just expected more of what we saw yesterday, Digestion. Good luck out there today.
Baa!
Swings L: $ANF 56.35 $ATPG 9.90/11.17 $EL 95.11 $JBHT 43.58 $OXY 101.14 $X 55.15 $ISRG May 350 calls 10.60 70% Cash

$SPX Read for the week, March 27, 2011″The Blanket Party” $SPY $HG_F $NYMO

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Last week was a fun one indeed, we saw a nice 70 point bounce in the SPX of the lows of 1249. We captured the 20 and 50 period moving averages, and also reclaimed support of 1307.  We have RSI over 50 signaling good strength overall. The MACD has crossed bullish just this past Fry-day, and the Stochastics look fine here. Technically we are still setup for a decent push this week. Although I would not be surprised to see some digestion up here and just maybe a slight dip. First area of support would be 1307, then looking at the 30 minute chart, we can use the fib’s whereas 1300 and 1290 are key points of interest. We honestly could pull in to back-test the recent downtrend line at 1285, or even as low as major support of 1274 and still be dam bullish here.

I am not looking for any real dip, but if we were to, those are your numbers. I suspect kinda flat trading for a day or two, then a liftoff. I honestly would not rule out 1338 here this week, but if we were to see 1338 this week, I’m not so sure we can crack it convincingly enough to put it behind us, still think we would need more time to base out and build up the stream it will require to plow through it. See in my opinion 1338 is the strongest resistance area on the SPX. We only managed to get above it for a few hours back in February. Looking at my monthly chart will show ya how important 1338 is. I believe that once we break it and put it behind us that this market is gonna explode higher once again. My yearly target is 1440.

The NYMO looks great here signaling plenty of room to the upside, and COPPER has reclaimed support of 436 which I feel must hold. If COPPER starts to get hammered, I will be forced to be more cautious.

Currently I am about 80% cash, and more than willing to deploy more capitol into the market if it warrants it. I think we need to ease into Monday, kick back and watch a little. Unless this market just rips north, don’t chase any gap ups first thing in the morning. As long as we remain in the “chop-zone” of 1235-1338 I just cant put more than 50% at work for more than a day or so. So for the time being just taking very short term swing’s with very manageable size.

May I also note that 1338-1235 should also be tagged a no-snowball zone. Building snowballs in this area of the SPX is foolish and an instant recipe for disaster. If you are a snowball trader adding to losing positions spiraling outta control, then you know what Private Pyle must have felt like after his “Blanket Party”. If ya get tempted to add to a losing position then this clip is for you. Good luck out there this week.
Baa!

A look at $ABD “Get ya’ Stapler Out”

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It’s ready for more. Like it right here for a core swing long. Has cleared the 200MA on the weekly @ 9.26, Look at my weekly chart and the monster vacuum it is entering. Stops at losing the 20MA @ 8.80. RSI supports the break-out. Stochastics look great. Low floater bunch of shorts. Whats not to like?

$SPY Read for the Day, March 25, 2011 $SPX $HG_F $NYMO

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Fryday is upon us once again, and we have seen a very nice bounce in the equity markets, “Buy the dip” is alive and well. We saw the SPX drive through 1307 yesterday capturing the 20 and 50 period moving averages, but stalling at trend-line resistance. Last night in the after hours, a monster order went through up at 1314 and subsequently faded back to the 1308′s. I take this as either someone wanted in bad with a poorly managed entry, or the FED is at it again. Either way I would expect this area to be tested, if not today then very soon.

The next upside target would be 1338, the key long term area of resistance, We have broken above three times in history, and one of those times was very recently, last month. The market on a sup/res basis has traded on point for a while now. I did not expect to capture 1338 like it wasn’t there on the first shot, and was looking for a 5-10% correction, we came down 7%. Looking for the run back to that area. Will we capture it on the 2nd attempt? Maybe, maybe not. The charts will tell us.

So many people got ran over again for trying to short what they thought was a dead cat bounce. I just don’t understand this kind of behavior. The FED has proven once again for the umpteenth time that they want this beast higher, and your “thoughts” dont matter. If you are ever feelin’ “bearish” my advise is and has been for two years, to go to heavy cash and wait. If you are right, well then pat yourself on the back, and BUY THE DIP!!!!!!!

As far as levals for today on the SPY we have my 131.42 area which was busted in pre-mkt, and currently we are hovering near it. The next major resistance on the SPY is at 134.62. We are in the middle of a gap right now as well, which started at 130.47 and fills at 131.82, and another overhead starting at 133.04 and filling at 133.95. If we started to see some selling the 61% fibber is at 130.53, a small gap to fill at 129.66 and then the 50% fibber is at 129.42.

So again it is Fryday people. I usually trade these days very light, depending on the action. Enjoy your weekend people!!
Baa!!

$SPY Read for the Day, March 23, 2011 $SPX $HG_F

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Seeing a little weakness here in pre market with the ES down 2, and the SPY has lost the recent low of 129.17 putting into the gap area which starts @ 129.20 and fills at 127.76. There is also another gap down there to fill at 127.30. In between we have the 38% fib and 50MA on the 60 minute chart at 128.32. As far as upside is concerned the 1300/130 area is first resistance, The 61% fib is at 130.53 and major resistance at 131.42 with a gap to fill at 131.82.

I feel as though the recent lows of 124.74/1249 are gonna hold, A short term trade-able bottom is in. With that being said we could still pull in to 127.50/1274 area which is major support. The recent action the past couple days has been solid. The move of the lows of 50 points is being digested, but looking under the surface there are not many great looking charts. So tells me another day or two for decent setups to emerge. Or wait on a dip to 1274ish.

I really like the look of the SPX 30 minute chart, big ol’ monster flag being built.

Copper’s head and shoulder top we fretted about for days is GONE… negated, get out the eraser. It has broken through 4.36 with a vengeance and is currently tagging 4.41.

I am back to a pretty heavy cash position again at 87% and playing the patience card. That is the key “Patience” No need to be a hero here. Let the market lead the way. Good luck out there today.
Baa!